I made my annual trek to Chapel Hill this weekend to see a couple of UNC basketball practices. Before the evening news on Thursday night, I expected to see two crisp, well-organized practices. All that changed, however, once the news of Tyler Hansbrough’s injury was released. (Quick aside: What in the world is a stress reaction? Give the medical folks at UNC huge props for catching this before a full blown stress fracture occurred). I don’t think I’ve done this before, but I feel like it would be appropriate to give what amounts to a medical report before I discuss what I saw at the two practices.

Let’s start with Tyler. The interesting thing with Hansbrough is that there really isn’t much wrong with him, unless he’s looking to be a major college basketball player. Roy went in to some detail to describe what their plan is with Tyler’s rehab. Barring something great happening with his leg, Tyler will be kept out of any activity for the next two weeks. At that time, they’ll do another MRI and another bone scan. If all looks ok (whatever that means) and he’s not in any pain, they’ll put him through some activity. According to Roy, this would translate in to a practice or two. If he comes through the practice(s) without pain he’ll be given a few more days of rest just to make sure he really is fine. After that, they’ll turn him loose. So, best case, Tyler will miss the exhibition next week against Pembroke, the opener vs. Penn, and unfortunately the Kentucky game on Nov. 18. He would be available, potentially, for the Santa Clara game on the 21st. Having said all that, Roy made it a point to tell us that nobody has any idea when Hansbrough will return – not the doctors, not the coaches, and not Tyler himself. It is very, very possible that Tyler won’t be back any time soon if his leg doesn’t cooperate. A stress fracture puts him on the shelf for the entire season, so it’s obvious that they’re trying to avoid that at all costs. The problem is that the only way his leg is going to get better is to rest it – and rest it a lot. This, of course, is no time for rest. My personal fear is that we ride this rest-play-rest merry-go-round the entire year. He’ll play for a while (a game, or two, or four), then he’ll be out for a bit (a game, or two, or four), and then he’ll play, and then he’ll rest…and so on. All this in the hopes that he can make it through the year. Worst case is that none of this works and he really doesn’t play much, or he develops a full-fledged stress fracture. Hansbrough will continue to work out in the pool and in other ways that don’t require him to put any weight on the leg. In fact, he made a quick appearance during Friday’s practice. It was clear he had been working out (he was a sweaty mess), Roy came over to talk to him for a few minutes during a break. You could tell Tyler was not comfortable with missing practice – he’s just not made that way. It was almost as if he was trying to let Roy know he’s ok. But, after a few minutes, Hansbrough disappeared back down the tunnel and that was the last we saw of him. Frankly, it was very sad. The kid deserves better.

The rest of the injuries are a bit easier to discuss. Ed Davis tweaked his knee a week or so ago. He was wearing a sleeve on it (no brace) and he participated fully in both practices. He was slowed a bit on Friday, but he looked much better on Saturday. All in all, he’s fine. Marcus Ginyard is not so fine. He’s in a boot and on crutches still. He came to the Saturday practice but he never once put any weight on the foot (not even to let touch the floor when he sat down). Based on reports and on a quick comment from Roy, Marcus won’t be back in ’08. It looks like they’re pointing to his return around the BC game on Jan. 4. Next up is Mike Copeland. Copeland looks like he’s just about ready to start practicing again. He was not around on Friday, but was cleared to start shooting again on Saturday. I never thought I’d say this, but I was so thrilled to see Copeland on the court Saturday. Right now, the Heels need all the big guys they can get. The last player on the injury list is Bobby Frasor. Bobby looks good, no real lingering effects from his knee surgery. He’s roughly as quick as he was when he was a freshman and sophomore, but not as quick as he was pre-injury last year. To sum up: Hansbrough and Ginyard are down for a while, Copeland is about to return, Davis is just about 100%, and Frasor is fine. If you think about it, that’s a Top 20-caliber team on the injury report. There aren’t many teams that could overcome the rash of injuries over the last 10 months – luckily the Heels are one of them (not to belabor this, but here are the injuries in order: Ginyard’s foot, Frasor’s knee, Lawson’s ankle, Ginyard’s foot again, Deon’s leg, Copeland’s knee, Ginyard’s foot surgery, Davis’ knee, and Tyler’s shin).

Before I dive in to the particulars, here are a few general observations. The practices were missing the kind of intensity that comes with Hansbrough’s presence. At one point, the first team could not stop the four walk-ons and Tyler Zeller. 8 straight scores from four guys who couldn’t play for any team on UNC’s schedule this year (including Pembroke). Roy, as you might imagine, lost his mind. He laid in to Danny, Ed Davis, Deon, and Ty. This caused the first unit to lock down on defense. But Roy never should have had to go ballistic. Another thing that was glaring was the complete lack of post play. For 3 years and 2 weeks, Tyler Hansbrough was option 1, 2, 3 and 4 on offense. Now he’s gone and the Heels are having to adjust on the fly. Over and over again the perimeter players would look to get the ball inside but Deon would be covered, or Ed Davis would be in the wrong place, etc. All of this caused the offense to flow in fits and starts. The break and secondary break still run pretty well – mainly because Ty Lawson is one fast dude. But the set offense has a ways to go.

Defensively, this team could be very, very good. Even without Ginyard and Hansbrough, the perimeter defenders are all good when they exert some effort. Lawson, Frasor, Green, Ellington and Larry Drew are more than capable on and off the ball. And, if you can believe it, Deon Thompson has developed in to a nice defender all over the floor. His knowledge of the system is exponentially better than it ever has been and that shows up in his ability to anticipate what is about to happen. In turn, this makes Deon a quicker player than he actually is. Roy believes that his 8, 9 and 10 guys are better than the other team’s 8, 9, and 10 players. For UNC, 8/9/10 are Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and Larry Drew (this assumes Hansbrough and Ginyard are playing). Because of this belief, Roy is going to do more full court pressing than he has in the past, and much more trapping in the half-court than we’re accustomed to seeing. Williams hopes that by turning up the heat, the Heels will play even faster than they have been (not sure how you do that, but we’ll see). This will create some foul trouble and general fatigue for the opposition. Thus, the need for 8/9/10 will be greater, which should be to UNC’s advantage. With Copeland, Ginyard, Hansbrough and Davis all hurting it seems unlikely Carolina will be able to extend its defense very much early in the season. But remember this when late January hits and (hopefully) all the bodies are in place. This is the first Tar Heel team I’ve seen in a while that has the experience and talent to play all over the court on defense.

Offensively, Carolina is in flux right now. Typically, UNC deploys two post players and three perimeter players. But, frankly, the post guys just aren’t that good on offense. Don’t get me wrong, they don’t suck. They’re just soft. There’s no other way to say it. Deon, Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis all have some solid things to offer – physicality just isn’t one of them. I’ll do a player break-down in a minute, but the best this post group does is pass. They aren’t great on the glass, they aren’t great around the hole, and they shoot it ok (although Zeller is and outstanding shooter). But all of them are good passers, and are willing to pass. It’s a good skill to have as a post guy, but not one that fills the other team with fear when trying to guard you. The other big problem the post group has is that Zeller and Davis aren’t conditioned to play more than 10-15 minutes a game right now. With Hansbrough and Copeland out, this is no small issue. Even Deon isn’t used to being used more than about 20 minutes a game. So how does Roy compensate? He starts working with only one post guy. This is a smart move for two reasons. First, it allows more of the perimeter guys to be on the floor. Without question, the backcourt is the strength of the team without Hansbrough available. In fact, I believe Lawson, Ellington, Green, Frasor and Drew make up the best group of perimeter players in the country (Duke is close, but I’d give the slight edge to UNC because Lawson is clearly better than anyone Duke has in terms of controlling a game). Second, only using one post guy at a time allows Thompson, Zeller and Davis to stay fresh enough to contribute at a high level. We’ll see how long Roy can stomach Danny at the 4, but having Lawson, Frasor, Ellington and Green on the floor together is the way to go.

This, of course, is going to make UNC a bit “3 happy”. And that will most certainly NOT make Roy happy. But, to quote the cliché, it is what it is. Your best players are all under 6’6 so you better figure out a way to get them on the court. Defensively, some concessions will have to be made with such a small lineup on the court. With Hansbrough, no big deal – he cleans up the glass just fine without any help. With Thompson, it’s a big deal. Rebounding will suffer, and post defense will suffer. But, honestly, this plays in to Roy’s thinking about his defense – pressure the ball more, play full-court more, and hopefully the other gang will throw it away before they can pound you underneath.

Right now, it’s pretty clear that Ty and Wayne are going to start along with Deon. The fight is for the other two spots. Danny should have the inside track, but Roy loves Bobby. And, Bobby just doesn’t screw up. The guy just knows how to play on both ends. If I had to guess right now, Bobby would beat out Danny at the other perimeter spot. So that leaves Danny to compete with Zeller and Davis for the 4. Davis is not ready to start – he’s still lost on many of the drills. Zeller, however, is very Bobby-like. He’s smart, he’s big (he is at least 6’11 if not a true 7’0), and he shoots it well from everywhere. Most importantly, he is a great passer. He is the anti-Hansbrough in this regard. He would be (and will be) a fantastic help to Deon. Zeller can shoot so he’ll create some space for Thompson, and he’ll actually look for Deon (some the other Tyler doesn’t do). Given that, I’m going to make an educated guess that Zeller starts and Danny comes off the bench to start the season.

Here are the player breakdowns:

Lawson – His shot was amazing for two days. Friday he shot it as well as I’ve seen the last three years. His stroke is more efficient and confident, and he no longer shoots it flat-footed. Basically, he looks like a shooter now when he rises up. He was knocking down 3’s from all over the place. In a nutshell, he’s unstoppable. If teams press up on him, see ya’ later. If they do what they always do, which is lay off, I promise you he’s going make ‘em pay. To underscore this, Ty out-shot Wayne over the two days …and it wasn’t close.

Ellington – Wayne knocks down everything when he’s set. So that hasn’t changed. But he still doesn’t go to the hole enough. Defensively, he’s good but he’s no Marcus. His ball-handling is a bit better too. When Bobby, Ty and Wayne play together they’re a tough unit. All of them can shoot it, but now that Wayne’s ball skills are better they can all handle it as well. If Wayne is going to guard the other team’s best perimeter player, he’s shooting is going to suffer (it did a little over the weekend).

Green – Wow, does Roy love to pick on Danny. I’ve seen 8 practices in Danny’s career. And in 8 different practices Roy has ridden Danny almost out of the gym. In Danny’s defense, he’s being asked to do a lot right now. But Roy cannot stand how casual Green can be on both ends at times. He’s still slow to rotate on defense occasionally, and he’s still careless with the ball too often. He can, however, stroke it from deep. Couple that with the fact that he plays much, much bigger than his 6’5 size and he’s a unique player. For the most part, Danny was very good. If he can make better decisions, he’ll be on the court 30 minutes every night.

Thompson – First, let’s put to rest the rumors that Deon is vastly improved. He’s better, but not by a ton (although he has come a long, long way defensively). In the post, Deon is struggling with just how much he should shoot. At one point Roy had to tell Deon “Look, we don’t have to have a leading scorer…we just need our team to score”. Deon is used to seeing the main post guy (Hansbrough) take a slew of shots. Roy doesn’t really want Deon to shoot that much, so Thompson is still trying to figure out his role. The best thing Deon has going for him is that the team looks to him as a leader (I kid you not). He’s very vocal, and he’s very enthusiastic. He did a great job both days of keeping folks moving to the right place at the right time.

Frasor – He looked good, very good. His shot is not awesome but it’s good. His decision-making is awesome though. He absolutely fits the role of the senior Carolina guard. There is nothing he doesn’t know. Defensively, he’ll be a huge asset. And, with the way Ty is shooting the ball, I could certainly see some Ty/Bobby combo minutes with Ty getting some rest from bringing the ball up.

Graves – I thought he’d be better. He can still stroke it, but he looks like he needs to lose about 10 more pounds. He’s about a step slow (still). He’ll play because he has to, but he needs to be a more consistent player on both ends. If he’s open, though, he’ll bury the 3.

Zeller – Love this guy. He’s fundamentally as good as any post guy UNC has had in the program since Eric Montross. He can go with either hand in the post, he’s a skilled passer (think “poor man’s Brad Daugherty”). He understands what to do on defense, and he runs the court very well for a guy his size (or any size for that matter). He’s put on 21 pounds since he arrived a few months ago…and it shows. He’s not the skinny dude I saw in the McDonald’s game back in April. He’ll hit more than a few trail jumpers, and garner more than a few assists. He’s not all that strong right now, but he’ll get better with the added weight.

Davis – Ed has a big up-side, but we may have to wait a while to see it. He’s still trying to figure out where to be, but he’s not a slow learner. And, like Zeller, he’s a good passer. His a big dude too (got to be very close to 6’10). And, he runs great. He’ll do more on defense for a while (he only has one little move to his left on offense, otherwise, he’ll need to figure out how to get some offensive rebounds).

Drew – Like this guy too. He has some ridiculously long arms for a guy who’s 6’0. In fact, he had the two best plays of the weekend. While guarding Lawson, Drew was able to stay with Ty while he took off for the hole. Ty stopped in the lane to shoot his pet floater. Lawson thought he had created enough space, but Drew used his long arms to completely stuff Lawson’s shot. I’ve watched Ty play for 2 years and I’ve yet to see anybody do that to him. Truly, it was amazing. He did the same thing again during Saturday’s practice. I imagine quite a few guards will find out how long those arms are this year. Offensively, he surprised me with how well he shoots. When the game is on, he knocks down open shots. And, of course, he’s a terrific decision-maker. He’s still feeling his way a bit on offense, but he’s got some big-time savvy. Derrick Phelps will come to mind quickly when you watch Drew play.

Watts – Justin is a nice player. Good size (about 6’6), good shooter. He reminds me of Danny 4 years ago. He does hunt his shot (and Roy ripped him for it several times), but I think I’m safe in saying that no team in the country has a 13th man as good as Watts. In a couple of years, he’ll be a nice role player.

Normally I would make a season prediction here. Just can’t do it though. There is really no way to know how good this team will be right now. If Tyler only misses a few games, then the sky is the limit. Otherwise, we’re looking at a wide range of possibilities. One thing is certain – this will be a crazy season one way or the other. If they all play defense for 40 minutes, they’ll win north of 30 games (with or without Hansbrough). If they play defense for 35 minutes, which seems to be about where they are right now, they’ll struggle to stay in the Top 10. Let’s just hope that whatever the record is, the Heels figure out a way to get to Detroit.