With some time (brief albeit) to reflect, I have some opinions on how to fix the Heels. This suggests that there is something “wrong” with Carolina’s basketball team. On the surface, that would be a tough thing to prove. UNC set a school record for wins in a single season (36), had won 15 in a row coming in to the game with Kansas, and won both the ACC regular season and tournament titles for the second consecutive year. All of this was capped off with a nice run to the Final Four. If something is “wrong” with the Heels then I imagine a lot of teams would love to be “wrong”. First a recap of the embarrassment in San Antonio. The Kansas game was an incredibly rude awakening. It’s pretty clear that Carolina had not played a team as good as the Jayhawks this year. Down 40-12 with 4:58 left in the first half, UNC was a thoroughly beaten team. Lots of things occurred that the Heels could not control. When Brandon Rush hit a deep, deep 3 - well, you can’t do much about that. Other things happened, however, that were a result of just plain careless play. Deon Thompson was stripped from behind just because he was lazy with the ball. Kansas got multiple lay-ups because UNC refused to play aggressively on defense. Ultimately, it was the perfect storm of good play encountering poor play. Still, despite the horrific start, Carolina was able to hold Kansas scoreless for 5 minutes late in the first half. That set the groundwork for an improbable comeback in the second half. Indeed, the Heels held KU to a paltry 14 points over a 15:43 stretch (6:58 in the first half all the way to 11:15 to go in the game).
The phrase “3 games” has been used to describe what happened Saturday night. That’s about right, although I would add one more “game”. Kansas won the “first” game 40-12. UNC won the “second” game 38-14. At this point, Kansas was ahead in the game 54-50, but Carolina clearly had the momentum. On the KU possession after UNC cut the lead to 4, the Jayhawks got 2 offensive rebounds which resulted in a Brandon Rush lay-up. Ty Lawson promptly turned the ball over and Kansas ran a nice high-low set with Darnell Jackson’s lay-up pushing the lead back to 8. The Heels managed to cut the lead to 5 a couple of times over the next 4:31. This would be the end of the “third” game. With 5:41 to go, Tyler Hansbrough hit a jumper to make the score 64-59. The ensuing Jayhawk possession saw the Heels clamp down and force Kansas to go through the entire shot clock. But Sherron Collins stepped up and hit a huge 3 from the top of the arc a couple of seconds before the shot clock expired. While Collins’ 3 only stretched the lead to 8, it effectively ended game “four”. Wayne Ellington did bury a jumper to immediately trim the lead back to 6 but it was to little avail. KU pushed the lead to double-digits quickly and wound up winning by 18 as the Heels scored only 5 points over the last 4:55 of the game.
The first two games were even, essentially, with Kansas holding a four point edge. Game three was close as well, with Kansas again owning a four point lead (which created an eight point advantage overall). Game four was all Jayhawks, as KU outscored UNC 15-5. It seems odd to say this now, but there were two possessions that went KU’s way that were THE game-breakers. The first was the aforementioned Rush lay-up (after two offensive rebounds) that moved the lead from 4 to 6. The second was Danny Green’s spin-out missed 3 that would have cut the lead to just 2 with over 8 minutes left. Green’s 3 was the bigger of the two possessions, but both were critical. Had Carolina cleaned up its defensive glass, not allowing Rush’s lay-up, the Heels may have come down and drained a 3 to cut the lead to 1. And, had Green’s 3 fallen, the Heels would have been able to play defense knowing a stop could produce a lead-changing possession.
Having said all that, Kansas was just plain better. To come out and start the game 40-12 is perhaps the most astounding beat-down of a good team in a Final Four that I can remember. It is not possible to overstate how befuddled the Heels were as Kansas took them apart. Roy Williams rarely likes to call time-outs in the first half; in fact I can’t remember the last non-end-of-half-30-second-time-out that he has used. But if ever there was time, Saturday was it. Williams doesn’t like to call a time-out if he thinks poor execution is the result of his team’s problems on the court - as he says, they got themselves in to it, they need to learn how to get themselves out of it. He also doesn’t like to call a time-out unless he thinks he can help his team. Either way, I have a bit of a problem with not calling a time-out. Even if Roy felt that his team was executing poorly, you have to call a time out once KU goes on a 10-0 run to push the lead to 15. (25-10). Instead, Williams allowed his team to get swallowed up and Kansas added to the 10-0 run by throwing up another 15-2 run. The reality is that Williams allowed bad to get worse. And, if Roy didn’t call a time-out because he didn’t feel like he could help his team, then shame on him. There is no guarantee a time-out would have done any good. But you never know unless you take one. Given the importance of the game, “wasting” a time-out would have been well worth the cost.
The time-out controversy aside, I had no problem with what happened from a technical standpoint. Kansas just played better - much, much better. A terrific season ends with a loss to a better team. There are worse things. So how does UNC right the “wrongs”? Here are some thoughts:
1. Defense - Defense, or lack thereof, has been the buzz-word for UNC all season. The Heels can stop folks. Contrary to popular opinion, Carolina doesn’t have a lack of will or effort. You don’t lead the country in rebound margin without being decent defensively. The problem the Heels have is one of experience. Despite the number of minutes logged by many of Carolina’s regulars in their career, this is still a young team. Deon Thompson played limited minutes last year, but was thrust in to the starting lineup this season. Wayne Ellington is just learning how to play hard on both ends of the floor after struggling mightily last year. Ty Lawson’s injury set him back defensively more than offensively. Couple that with the loss of Bobby Frasor, who while lacking in foot speed is a superb half-court defender. Danny Green is a fantastic transition defender, but he loses focus easily in the half-court. Among the big minute players, only Marcus Ginyard and Tyler Hansbrough were consistently good defensively. The Tar Heels need some more reps on defense, especially against good offenses. That’s the easy part of the “experience” problem. The harder part is learning how to play full throttle on offense AND still play shut-down level defense. Bill Self said something that I believe is true. He was asked about getting back against the UNC transition offense. Self explained that if you worry too much about getting back you aren’t going to be aggressive on offense, especially in offensive rebounding. Self is correct. And, the reverse of this is what causes UNC problems on defense. There is such a huge emphasis on getting out on the break that the Heels often lose focus on defense. There are times when Carolina appears unphased by the opposition scoring because they are more interested in busting it up the court on offense. Only experience can help you understand how to give both ends of the floor its proper focus. Only experience can teach you that the quickest way to get to offense is to create a turnover by playing sound, suffocating defense. Next year, as the Heels become a junior/senior dominated team, this experience against Kansas will serve them well. Hansbrough and Lawson may exit, taking a ton of offense with them. But that lack of offense can be offset by a greater urgency on the defensive end.
2. Danny Green, Starter - I like Deon Thompson a good bit. He’s a solid low post scorer, and a capable defender at times. But he is not great. And, most importantly, he cannot shoot the 3. In this day and age, your 4 man must be able to knock down the occasional 3. The 2005 team had two 4’s who could shoot the 3 - Jawad Williams and Marvin Williams. That’s a major reason why they won the title. A huge reason why the 2006 team was able to enjoy great success was due in large part to David Noel’s ability to play on the perimeter from the 4 spot. Danny Green is primed to become the next guy to step in to this role. There are two more reasons to move Danny in to a starter’s role. First, it will allow him more time to produce. Often, Danny will come in the game 4-6 minutes after the tip. There are times when he doesn’t play well during his initial 2-4 minute stretch. Now, you’re looking at almost half of the first half going by with very little production from one of your 5 best players. That’s no good. Starting would give Green more minutes to work through a bad stretch. And, on a good night, it would give Carolina a huge effort - more production than Deon Thompson is capable of, even on his best day. Second, the rotation would work better if Deon was the first guy to spell Tyler. When Danny or Alex come in for Tyler, a low post option is eliminated. Also, if Deon stays in the game when Tyler goes out, he’s obviously a little on the tired side. Allowing Thompson to come in for Tyler would mean Deon could play against the opponent’s weaker post defenders while he’s fresh. That could prove to be a big plus.
3. Minutes for Bobby Frasor at the 2 - I hoped to see Frasor at the two some this season, but his injury ended all of that. Obviously, Ty Lawson will determine whether Bobby sees any/many minutes at the 2. If Ty stays (and I think economics will keep him at UNC next season), a rotation having Lawson-Frasor-Ellington on the floor at the same time would be lethal offensively. Wayne showed at the end of the year that he was a willing and capable rebounder on both ends. Ellington is a more balanced threat at the 3 than Marcus Ginyard is. In fact, the better starting lineup would have Bobby replacing Marcus (along with Danny replacing Deon). To make this work, however, Frasor has to become the shooter he was advertised to be when he came to Carolina. And, Wayne would need to embrace the offensive rebounding skills necessary to play the 3. This is where Ellington could really shine, though. You don’t get fouled much shooting 3’s. Ellington is a superb FT shooter. UNC needs him at the line a lot (see: Hansbrough, Tyler). Getting in the lane more - whether by penetration, offensive rebounding, or transition opportunities - is the best way to get to the line. Playing the 3 will present more of those opportunities for Wayne.
4. Handle the ball - This was a mediocre ball-handling team at best. The four parts of ball-handling (dribbling, passing, catching, decision-making) left a lot to be desired. Green, Thompson, Stepheson, and Hansbrough were almost inept at times. Thomas, Ginyard and Ellington were fair, but collapsed when pressured. Lawson was the only confident ball-handler, and even he wasn’t always consistent in his decision-making. This is the major offensive skill that needs to be addressed in the off-season. From Tyler’s ability to recognize and pass out of double/triple teams, to Danny’s need to improve his skill in taking folks off the dribble, to Alex becoming stronger with the ball in the post, all of the Tar Heels need to devote some practice time in this area. The Kansas game should serve as incentive - the Jayhawks pressured UNC all over the court and forced one mistake after another. Just imagine what would have happened if 40-12 were 30-22 instead. That’s just five possessions (10 points Carolina didn’t get, and 10 points for KU off of those extra offensive possessions). In tournament games, turnovers are everything. Especially when two even teams are playing. This area will be the difference between another 30-win-but-unfulfilled-season next year and a title.
So that’s it - four pieces to “fix” the puzzle. A new starting lineup (Lawson, Frasor, Ellington, Green and Hansbrough), a greater improvement in defense that comes with experience, and an improvement in all phases of handling the ball - that’s what it will take to grab the ring. With 12 legitimate Division I players at his disposal, Williams won’t have a problem with body count (unless Lawson and Frasor both go down again for extended periods). Roy’s major problem will be continuity of minutes. Because of this, it is imperative that the new starting lineup go in to effect. Those five are the five best overall players on the team. They need to be playing 24-28 minutes a piece at a minimum (Hansbrough and Lawson probably need to be closer to 30-31 minutes). That leaves roughly 70 minutes to be split between the other 7 players. Zeller and Graves aren’t going to be playing more than about 5 minutes a game each. Now we’re down to 5 guys playing 60 minutes. Ginyard is going to play about 20 minutes a game because Roy is going to play him about 20 minutes regardless of how offensively challenged he is. So that reduces the total to 4 guys and 40 minutes. Thompson, Stepheson, Davis and Drew need to be able to average about 10 minutes each. And those need to be 10 productive minutes. 5 minutes a half - or 1 minute per TV timeout. That’s all UNC needs from these four to be a powerhouse on most nights.
The good news is ‘Ol Roy has 189 days left to make this happen, and 363 days to realize the rewards in Detroit