I believe I’ll take a little credit for Wake’s win last night. About a week ago I predicted the Deacons would drop the Devils. It was nice to see how Duke responds (not well) when a good many close calls go against them. Obviously, Wake received a nice dose of “homer” whistles – you rarely, if ever, see guys cut off the baseline so aggressively without a foul being called. But, Nelson and Henderson stepped out bounds with a little “help” several times without a call. So you see what happens – Duke’s entire first five fouls out.

There were two more important things that occurred, though. Did you see how well prepared Wake was to run Duke off the 3 point line? And, I thought Gaudio added a nice extra touch too. Once Duke put the ball on the floor, the Wake defenders played off. When Duke dribbled inside the line Wake understood that a 15-17 footer was preferable to bodying up while Nelson, Henderson, Singler, Scheyer, et.al drive to the hole. This strategy blew up Duke’s rhythm. The Devils are so used to teams flying at them (which allows easy penetration) that they were completely unprepared to see controlled close-outs that didn’t allow immediate blow-by’s.

The other ingredient was Duke’s inability to force a ton of turnovers. Ish Smith and Jeff Teague’s speed ripped the Devils. So no turnovers plus very few wide-open three’s equals a grind it out game. Duke is no good in grind it out games. And, consequently, you see how they melted the last five minutes. Not to beat a dead horse, but after seeing how Teague ran the Dookies in to the ground someone will have to try and convince me that Ty Lawson wouldn’t have been the difference in the outcome a couple of weeks ago. Remember, as poorly as UNC played that night, it was a five point game with 54 seconds to go. Nobody is going to make me believe Lawson wasn’t worth a 10 point swing. I hope he’s completely healthy in 19 days. If he is, Duke will struggle against the Heels. Carolina may not win, but they’ll lead during the game (something that wasn’t really true in Chapel Hill).

As for Carolina, it’s amazing what can happen in the course of just a few games. After the Duke game, I was pretty down on UNC. Now? I couldn’t be more proud. If someone had told me in October that Q would start a game for the Heels and not have Bobby or Ty available, that he would split a screen hedge and throw one down LEFT HANDED, and would help orchestrate a 47 point lead over a conference team (still shaking my head at the size of the lead), I would have howled in amusement. Watching him play (and Alex and Will) on Saturday, I could finally see why Roy said he “feel in love” with Q in high school. Thomas has become a threat. A real threat. He has size, athleticism, and savvy. If he plays like this in Raleigh on Wed., I’ll be on the bandwagon. It’s not just Q though. Did you see how bad Danny looked? His eyes were all puffy and glazed (ah, yes,…I love HD). He looked completely drugged up. But he toughed it out. And Deon? Hyper-extend your knee….and then play a few days later. That’s pretty amazing. And poor Marcus – my goodness, he looks in pain every time he has to stop quickly. Ryan was watching the UNC-Duke game from last year (bloody nose game). I came in to see him and saw what he was watching, so I watched a little bit too. I was shocked to see how quick and “jumpy” Ginyard was. It was as if he was a completely different player. With two bad wheels right now, it’s amazing he can do anything. I guess I’ve grown used to seeing him hobble around the court. I want the “old” Marcus back.

From a strategic standpoint, VaTech was unable to force Q to guard (State may have the same problem too). Once that was established midway through the first half, you could see that the Hokies were going to have a tough time with their offense. When UNC is able to limit the other team’s PG, the rest of the defense becomes much better. No drives off the top, no pick-and-pops, no transition pushes – that makes the Heels a dangerous defensive team because it allows their wing pressure to ramp up. Still, it is amazing that Carolina as currently constituted could smash a team by 40+. And, VaTech has been very good on the road this year. I think the bball karma caught up with UNC (in a good way) on Saturday. I hope that continues on Wednesday in Raleigh. Other than Hickson, the Pack was pitiful against Clemson. Of course, they will load up for the Heels. As long as State doesn’t start knocking down a ton of 3’s the Heels should be ok (but they still may lose). What the Pack doesn’t want is for UNC to be within 8 coming down the stretch. Carolina’s toughness will take over, and State’s lack of toughness will show up big-time. It must really kill Sidney Lowe – a model of toughness his whole career – to see such a soft team.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is: What will happen when the Heels get bodies back at full strength? Lawson won’t play vs. State (that’s almost a certainty). And, I don’t get the feeling he’ll be ready to go for Wake on Sunday either (just a hunch, but reading between the lines it seems safe to assume he won’t go). The Heels don’t need Lawson to beat the Pack, but not having him for the Deacs will pose a huge problem. Still, it’s time to be all about the big picture. Lawson will be back in the next couple of weeks, that much seems certain. And I think the coaching staff is fine with allowing Ty to get fully healthy (as opposed to a gimpy Marcus, or sick Danny). When Lawson comes back, he needs to be operating at as close to 100 miles/hr as he can. Just think what is going to happen when Lawson is able to get 4-5 easy buckets a game. And when he’s able to find Wayne and Danny (and Will?) in transition for easy 3’s. And when he’s pushing Marcus back to the 2/3 exclusively (meaning Ginyard can allow himself to be more aggressive because foul trouble won’t be a huge issue). And, and, and…..the list just goes on and on. Roy said that Ginyard’s ailments are getting better by the day (although Marcus acknowledged that he’ll be in pain for the rest of the year). I think Deon may be on the shelf for a week or so, but that’s not the end of the world for the next two games (State doesn’t have much size, and Wake only has Chase McFarland and Jaime Skeen (at times)).

The reality is, unless something strange happens, all the Tar Heels will be just about 100% in the next 2-3 weeks. That coincides with Duke, the ACC Tourney, and the Big Dance. With any luck, that’s the last quarter of the season. 10 games – 10 “must” games. The Duke game is a must because without it there is no chance for a #1 seed. The ACC tourney games are a must because the Heels don’t need to enter late March with any crisis of confidence. And the NCAA’s are the ultimate MUST games. My big fear is that the VaTech game turns out to be a huge exhale right when UNC needs to try and put their foot down. Duke opened the door last night. State, Wake, BC, FSU and Duke – that’s all that’s left. Win ‘em all and the Heels would share for the ACC title (at worst – but they’ll still be the 2 seed based on losing to Maryland and Duke beating the Terps). Winning all 5 would also put great emphasis on the ACC tourney. It seems certain, in that scenario, whoever advances the farthest in the ACC tourney will be the East #1 (assuming, of course, that “farthest” is a Sunday game, and Memphis takes care of business vs. UT next weekend. If the Vols win out, though, things get problematic. There will be 4 teams battling for 2 #1’s in the East and South. And, you can’t overlook Georgetown and UCLA. There might be 7 deserving #1’s this year. Which means, the Heels need to win out).

This may be the most fun at the top of the brackets we’ve had in quite some time. Texas looks to be climbing, and MSU, Purdue and Wisconsin appear to be legit teams as well. Add in a surging Stanford, a dangerous Vandy, a red-hot UConn and an on-a-mission IU, and you have no less than 15 teams capable of a Final Four (not to mention possibles like Butler and Kansas St.). I think we could have the best Sweet 16 games in a while. Matchups like: Duke vs. KState, UNC vs. UConn, UCLA vs. Vandy, Kansas vs. Clemson. The second weekend could be some war-like hoops.

I’ll stop now. Can you tell I’m amped up? ?