UNC is the #1 basketball team in October. Over the weekend, I got to take a look at this group (as I do each year). And, there are a few reasons to believe they might well be the top ranked team in April too. I saw 6 hours of practice over two days. For the first time I can remember, all the bodies were healthy (essentially). The practices were spirited, and Roy Williams was not interested in folks messing up (more on this in a bit). But before I dive in to the ‘07-’08 Heels, it’s worth noting that this is a bit of a milestone year for the Tar Heels - specifically, for Coach Williams.

This is Roy’s fifth season as UNC’s head coach. That means all remnants of the Matt Doherty era are now gone. Every single player on this year’s team was recruited and signed by Williams. When Roy was hired, this was a year I pointed to - this would be the year we would begin to see how well Williams had guided UNC out of the Dean Smith years. So what, you ask, will this year’s team show us?

First, here are a few overall thoughts. While Carolina will play 9 guys routinely, this is not a deep team. I know that sonds strange. I’ll elaborate on this in just a second. Maybe the Heels aren’t deep, but they are nothing if not relentless. They’re relentless on the glass, relentless in transition, relentless in getting the ball inside, relentless in pressuring the ball. The practices weren’t all the great, frankly. There were lots of mistakes. Still, everybody was going full speed all the time. It appears that Roy has established his culture of “go, go, go” and now that culture is firmlly establsihed with every player. Offensively, Carolina will struggle at times this year. Defensively, they may lead the nation in rebouding margin - and maybe by a lot.

So why would I say the Heels aren’t deep? On the surface you’d think UNC has bodies all over the place. Three point guards, four guys to play the 2/3 spot, and four post players getting minutes at the 4 and 5 spots. These are deceiving numbers however. Truly, Carolina has one point guard. In fact, maybe the most disappointing thing about this year’s practices was seeing how little Quentin Thomas has improved in 4 years. He still has no jump shot, he still can’t hold on to the ball, and he still struggles at times defensively. Thankfully, Bobby Frasor looks healthy. His foot was fine, and he ran all over the place for two days. Frasor is a more-than-competent backup point guard. The problem is that he would be much better playing with Ty Lawson instead of for him. Frasor’s jumper looks very good. He would benefit from Lawson’s penetration. You can just see Bobby spotting up in transtion as Lawson comes flying down the court. In the offseason, both Roy and Bobby repeatedly said that Frasor would be moving over to the wing on offense. This weekend, Frasor played exactly zero minutes at the 2. After seeing Q play I can understand why Bobby is back at PG. Look for Lawson to play 32+ minutes a game come January.

Speaking of the 2 spot, I was encouraged to see four extremely capable wing players. Wayne Ellington is a shade quicker, Marcus Ginyard still isn’t the shooter he could be but he’s definitely one of the best defenders in the country, and Danny Green is shooting the ball on a different level. Then there is Will Graves. He’s the only player nobody knows anything about. When I saw Graves last year, he was certainly overweight and slow-footed. His stroke was nice, but he couldn’t get it off under pressure. This year he’s a totally differnt player with a totally different body. Without exaggeration, this guy is an offensive force. At various times, Graves reminded me a bit of Kevin Madden, Reyshawn Terry, and Rashad McCants. That’s some high octane offensive talent. On one possession, Will was squared up with Ginyard at the top of the key. Graves took two dribbels in the lane, backing Ginyard down. Then, he rose up from 12 feet and calmly knocked down the jumper with Marcus hanging all over him. Remember, Graves went LEFT - that means Ginyard was laying all over his shooting hand. No matter - Graves just stuck it in the hole. He had another one of these plays on Ellington. The only way I can explain it is to say that both of these shots were NBA plays. And Graves has a nice NBA body for a 2-3. Ginyard and Ellington are solid, strong guys. Graves makes them both look smallish. Before we all get carried away, think back to my Madden/Terry/McCants comparison. These were mercurial folks - and Graves has a mercurial game. Defensively, he’s not quite there yet. Offensively, he does hunt his shot. And this means he isn’t great in the other offensive skills. So, he’s still a work in progress. But boy can he score the ball. Graves will play, but he won’t be able to play in January and February without some substantial defensive improvement. That leaves just Danny, Marcus and Wayne to play all the minutes at the 2-3. Since two of those three will start, that really leaves just one experienced backup on the wing (unless Bobby moves over to the 2 periodically).

Moving to the post players, Hansbrough, Thompson, Stepheson and Copeland are the only folks in the program over 6′7. Copeland is only going to play in cases of extreme foul trouble or when the Heels are smacking people around early in the season. As with the wing spots, that leaves just three guys to play two positions. And, as with the last two years, Tyler will always be a couple of quick whistles away from putting the Tar Heels in serious trouble. The good news is that Deon Thomspon and Alex Stepheson have improved quite a bit. Thompson is about a whole person lighter now. He looks tremendously lighter, but he hasn’t lost his ability to score down low. Deon is quicker, as you might expect, and this helps him most on the defensive end. He’s able to get out and pressure the ball on the perimeter much better than he could last year. Stepheson is still a beast on the glass. Now he has some nice offense to go with his Windex cleaning. Alex has worked hard on a nice jump hook and a decent power drop step. He won’t start, but he could be a difference-maker - especially on defense. Stepheson’s biggest problem is understanding what do on offense.

So here’s the lineup so far: Lawson, Frasor, Thomas, Ginyard, Ellington, Green, Graves, Hansbrough, Thompson, Stepheson, and Copeland. That’s 11 guys - but you can all but scratch Thomas, Graves and Copeland. With Stepheson’s limited ability to grasp the offense, there are only 7 players who can go both ways consistently. 7 guys is fine (see ‘05 champs), but it ain’t deep. Thomas, Graves, Copeland, and Stepheson need to give the Heels 15 minutes collectively each game. If that happens, Carolina will be fine. If any of them are forced to play much more than a couple of minutes each half then UNC will struggle. Alex can play more, but he probably won’t play much more - his grasp of the offense is still pretty limited. However, it’s early and he shows the most promise of improving enough in the next couple of months to help Carolina late in the year.

Enough about the limited depth though. Carolina will do three things exceptionally well this season: They’ll play hard, they’ll attack the glass on both ends like you wouldn’t believe, and they’ll knock down open shots with regularity. The playing hard part is important too. This is not a team blessed with a bunch of folks who can get their own shot. Last year, Ty Lawson, Reyshawn Terry and Brandan Wright could get a good shot almost any time they wanted. This year, only Lawson can create his own look. Everybody else is limited in this area. At times, Ellington can create….but he’s not consistent. For now, Wayne is a jump shooter (and a good one - he was knocking the bottom out of the basket for two days). If the Heels don’t play hard they’ll struggle to score. This is a team that will need to force turnovers and crash the glass in order to put up big numbers. In transition they’re devastating because of Lawson. In the half-court they’re predictable: Hansbrough, Hansbrough, more Hansbrough. Lucky for UNC, Tyler is awesome (he’s just amazing from 5 feet in).

What will set Carolina apart from just about everybody this season is their ability to hit open shots. Over and over and over again during both practices open shots were nailed. Lawson, Ellington, Graves, Frasor, Green, Thompson - they made nearly every open shot they took. This is the sign of an experienced team. The players are prepared to shoot when they’re open. They know how the offense works and they know when/where they’re going to get a good look. But you still have to make the shots. Right now it looks like that isn’t going to be a problem.

Here’s a brief breakdown of each player:

Hansbrough - Still good, still tough, still out-working everybody on the planet. But he still hasn’t developed a consistent face-up game. This will become bothersome for UNC until he can hit a 10-footer routinely.

Ty Lawson - He’s better on offense than he was a year ago, which is saying something. Defensively, he’s better too - but I doubt we’ll see much of it because he can’t afford the foul trouble.

Wayne Ellington- Quicker and stronger, and his shot is lethal. He is going to help Tyler quite a bit more this year.

Danny Green - More consistent game in every way. Danny is all over the place on both ends. His ball-handling is his weak spot, but he’ll score a ton of points this year. Great, great shooter.

Marcus Ginyard - His offense is not where he would like it. He can shoot. He has a nice stroke, but he doesn’t trust it. The difference between Ginyard and Green is that Danny KNOWS he can shoot the ball well. Marcus is still trying to find his shot. All the other stuff is top-notch though. Solid with the ball, outstanding defender, rebounds like crazy - he’s George Lynch in a 6′5 body.

Deon Thompson - Lean, quick…great post player. Deon can score and he can pass. If he’ll defend he’ll be on the floor the whole game.

Alex Stepheson - Monster on the block. He has to get comfortable without the ball on offense. Watch for him to figure things out over the next two months. Lord knows the Heels need him to.

Bobby Frasor - This guy looks good. He may be the biggest piece of glue for this year’s team. He can play both guard spots with skill. If he gets hurt again UNC is in serious trouble.

Quentin Thomas - Perhaps Roy’s biggest disappointment in 4 years. Q is just not a guy who can play major minutes. He’ll be a designated defender in late game situations.

Will Graves - See above. Big-time offensive player, small-time defender. He’ll play, and he’ll score.

Mike Copeland - Nice fourth post option. That’s about it.

A Slew Of Walk-Ons - I’ll give ‘em this, these guys (5 of them led by Surry Wood) can shoot the ball.

In order for UNC to be #1 in April, they’ll need to figure out how to handle the ball and get good shots in half-court sets. No team in America will run with the Heels. Those days, for the most part, are over. Carolina needs to understand that Hansbrough can’t be the only option on every possession. This goes counter to Roy’s thinking, but it gets the Heels in trouble too often when they rely on Tyler. Ellington, Lawson and Green are more than good in the half-court. Thompson should help too (maybe not as much as Wright did last year, but enough to keep some teams honest).

There isn’t much doubt that UNC can win the title. All the pieces are in place, including the experience piece. Lawson and Hansbrough need to stay on the floor, and the Heels need to stay focused. There are some tough games early at Kentucky and Ohio St - but there are no seriously difficult games. And the Heels play a ton of home games in ‘08. Really, the season sets up nicely. Play hard all the time, crash the glass, hit the open shot - and win a national championship.