Last year, the Florida Gators proved that a young team can figure out how to win a National Championship. The Gators were full of freshmen and sophomores, with sophs Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green leading the way. Their season was nondescript until March rolled around. Then, Florida ran off 9 straight wins to capture the SEC and NCAA tournament championships. So, coming in to this season lots of folks wondered whether North Carolina could do the Gators one better. The Heels were led by freshmen and sophomores just like last year’s Florida crew. The difference is that UNC’s lead players were freshmen Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Brandan Wright. These three teamed with sophomore Tyler Hansbrough to form the nucleus of the youngest national power since Michigan’s Fab Five.

On the surface, this year’s Heels didn’t disappoint. 31 wins, tie for the ACC regular season championship, ACC Tournament title, 3 wins in the NCAA tournament and coming within 6 minutes of the Final Four - all in all, that’s a solid season that bordered on great. So why does it feel like an unfulfilling year? Well, that’s a loaded question. It’s difficult to be objective 2 days after such a draining loss. Still, it is important to figure out why the nagging feeling of unreached potential is so pervasive.

Before diving in to a season recap, let’s deal with the horrible Georgetown loss. Horrible. That’s really the best word to describe what happened. One definition of horrible is “extremely bad or unpleasant”. To be honest, after the game I felt extremely bad AND unpleasant. And sad. Very, very sad. It was sad to see Reyshawn Terry’s career end when he was just getting grooved up to make a big statement in Atlanta. And it was down-right heartbreaking to think that this was the last time this group of players would be together. The game itself was strange. Lots of fouls in the first half, very few fouls in the second half. Obviously, the long stretch without a basket was excruciating. The difficult thing really wasn’t watching all the missed shots clang all over the place (although that part was painful). It was the shot selection that was almost unbearable, and the speed at which the shots were being fired at the hoop. More than anything, the last six minutes of the game exposed the Heels as an impatiently young team. At the most critical point in the season their poise and patience were tested against a mighty foe, and the young Tar Heels proved to be neither poised nor patient. Yes, the Heels should have played some zone. Yes, Carolina took bad shots. Yes, Wayne Ellington rushed the potential game winner. But it was youth in the end that killed the Tar Heels — inexperienced players making poor decisions.

Along with that youthfulness, the other great theme of this season was the lack of consistent defensive effort. The first annoying sign that this could be a frustrating season came, amazingly, in UNC’s last exhibition game against Pfieffer. The final was 140-101. Usually, a 39 point win is a nice way to kick off the season. But the 101 points given up was astonishing. Pfieffer is a DII team. They are average at their level, and poor at the DI level. Yet, here was the mighty Tar Heel machine giving up 100+. I watched the game live. It was surreal to see Pfieffer score so many points. To their credit, the Falcons would score more points on UNC than any other opponent the rest of the year. At the time, it was hard to tell just how bad Carolina’s defense was. Clearly, though, it was bad.

Then the season started and both Sacred Heart and Winthrop managed to stay close to the Heels in the preseason NIT. The full thrust of the poor games vs. Pfieffer, Sacred Heart and Winthrop weren’t realized until Gonzaga smacked the Heels around in Madison Square Garden. Offensively, the Heels were still unsure of how to deal with Tyler Hansbrough’s inability to pass out of the double-team. But it was the defensive end of the floor that emerged as the sour spot in earnest. At the time, however, most folks believed the Heels youth was the real defensive culprit. Get more games under their belt, so the argument went, and the freshmen and sophomores would be fine. As it turned out, the Tar Heels defense would be their most problematic area for the entire season.

The big question is why? Why would a team with quick, seemingly savvy, big, long athletes have so much trouble getting stops? In fairness, UNC lost only 7 games all year. But last year’s team - a team far, far less talented than this one - lost 8 games. As we all know, last year’s team had David Noel and this year’s team did not. Noel’s savvy was undeniable. And his championship ring served as a tangible example of “how to”. As in “I know how to win”. This year’s team did not have David Noel. I realize that’s a fairly obvious statement, but it does go a long way to explaining why there were so many defensive issues with this year’s team. Jonathan Wallace’s three-pointer to tie the game on Sunday is a great example of this problem. Wallace came off of a ball screen. Ty Lawson went under the screen instead of going over the pick and chasing Wallace off the three-point shot. Lawson did a nice job of recovering but the space he gave Wallace allowed the Hoya guard a clean, focused look at the hoop. Roy Williams said it was a little mistake for Lawson to go under that screen. This was microcosm of the entire season - a young-but-talented player made a poor decision on defense.

The biggest irony of all was that the season ended in large part because the Heels couldn’t put the ball in the basket. Roy Williams said all year that this was probably the best shooting team he’s ever had. And then Sunday happened. 2 for 21. 3 baskets in more than 17 minutes of game time. Ellington, Hansbrough, Wright, Green, Ginyard, Miller, Terry, Lawson, Thompson - none of them could find the bucket. Stunning is an understatement - that kind of offensive collapse is nearly apocalyptic. I remember Shammond Williams struggling mightily in back-to-back Final Four games. But the whole team? As ‘ol Roy would say, “Hello Pete” that was one awful performance.

So now it’s on to next season. Obviously we have to start with a team that is minus Brandan Wright. It would be slightly-to-incredibly amazing if Wright were back in Chapel Hill next season. But Brandan might well be the only defection to the NBA. Tyler Hansbrough appears to be a near lock to return to play his junior season at UNC. And then there is Tywon Lawson. There are some serious mixed reviews on Lawson at this point. Some have him in the lottery, some have him not even being drafted. Logically, one would think Lawson would fall somewhere in the mid-to-late first round. The real question is whether anyone - Lawson most importantly - believes Ty can move up in to the high lottery with another year at Carolina. A rational analysis seems to indicate a return to campus for Lawson.

If Wright decides to stick around for another year, then Carolina might end up being the consensus #1 to start the year. Assuming Wright is the only one to bolt, the Tar Heels are in great shape to make another strong run to the Final Four in San Antonio. Here are some areas that need to improve in order for that to happen:

1. Improved PG Play — Ty Lawson was great for most of the season (excluding this year’s Regional games), but the drop-off was steep when Lawson wasn’t in the game. Bobby Frasor will have to get healthy, because Quentin Thomas has proven over 3 seasons that he isn’t a big-time PG. As a senior, though, Thomas should be a competent backup. Frasor, with better health, should return to the form he showed late in his rookie year. With a year-better Lawson, a healthy Frasor, and a competent Thomas, the Heels should be terrific at the point.

2. Developing A Third Post - On most nights this year, the Heels separated themselves from the pack with three very good post players in Hansbrough, Wright, and Deon Thompson. Next season, Hansbrough and Thompson are the likely starters. But the development of a third post option will be critical. The bulk of this responsibility will fall to Alex Stepheson. As the Arizona game showed, Stepheson is more than capable of becoming a big-time post player. If Stepheson fails to really come up big, and/or Thompson doesn’t improve as much as expected, the Heels will struggle. Maybe Hansbrough will figure out how to score against a quadruple-team, but I doubt it. Thompson and Stepheson need to play well.

4. G2 - As in Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard. These two guys (along with William Graves potentially…..so maybe this should be G3) will hold down the position that Reyshawn Terry is vacating. For the last 5 seasons the only people to play the 3 at UNC are Rashad McCants and Terry. That’s some serious scoring and serious athleticism that will have to be replaced. Green is the odds-on favorite to start due to his ability to score and by virtue of the fact that he played the 3 this season. Ginyard is likely to be a true backup at two postions next year, since he’ll continue to be Wayne Ellington’s replacement at the 2. Green and Ginyard need to improve in two distinct ways - Green needs to become a better decision-maker and more committed defender while Ginyard must develop some sort of make-shift offensive skill. Marcus doesn’t have to shoot the 3 ball to be effective, but there are only so many times you can crash the offensive glass to score all your points. Ginyard is effective at the FT line and has good size/strength. I’d like to see Roy put Marcus down in the post some (ala Rashad McCants), which would probably get Ginyard to the line and would be a great compliment to Ellington’s perimeter game.

5. Defense - This is without question the area that needs to improve the most. Two specific things need to happen. First, UNC’s guards need to do a better job of controlling dribble penetration off the top. Second, Carolina needs to develop a better sense of when a “must stop” is upon them. The first point should be easily addressed. Lawson, Ellington, Ginyard and Thomas are more than capable of being good-to-great defenders (on or off the ball). And Bobby Frasor has always shown tremendous savvy to compensate for his lack of outright foot speed. The second point will have to be handled by the coaching staff through the summer and fall. The Heels need to understand just how important a timely stop can be. One extra stop against Georgetown and the Heels win the game. The 2005 champs had a unique knack for shutting the other team down at just the right time. Most of that was due to experience. A team full of sophomores and juniors should be well-equipped to understand this nuance.

Ultimately, defensive improvement and the development of Green and Ginyard will determine how well the Heels do in 2007-08. But keep one thing in mind as all of us Tar Heel fans mope through the off-season. Catastrophe often has a way of flipping itself in subsequent seasons, and recent UNC history backs this up. The 1994 team was rudely bounced by Boston College in the second round that season. That broke the streak of consecutive Sweet 16’s, and ruined what should have been back-to-back titles. But, the 1995 team made the Final Four by stomping on pre-tourney favorite Kentucky. The 1997 and 1998 teams - both loaded - lost on Saturday of the Final Four. Both losses (to Arizona and Utah) were very, very painful and neither should have occurred. Then, the 1999 team had to endure The Show from Weber St. and exited in the first round. Three straight years that ended in unique and exquisite pain. But, lo and behold, the 2000 crew (which didn’t deserve a bid) carried itself all the way to the Final Four and beat #1 seed Stanford along the way. This may have been the most remarkable run any UNC team has ever had. Next came Matt Doherty and 8-20. But out of this abyss came Felton, May, McCants and eventually Roy. And then came the title.

The Georgetown loss may not be flipped next season, but you can bet it will be soon enough. Part of me thinks this string of bad-to-good will continue with everyone returning for one more season - a season that will end with some magic in the Alamodome…which, by the way, would have some symmetry since it’s the place Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter played their last game in a Tar Heel uniform. 10 years later…..maybe the last games of Hansbrough, Wright, and Lawson’s career….and maybe a title.