Having seen 29 Tar Heel games now, here are some observations:

1. Why no line-up change? – You could argue that 5 losses doesn’t mandate a shakeup in the starting five. But this is a young team. Line-up consistency usually equates to experienced squads. So one of two things is happening: Either Roy Williams really doesn’t believe there is anyone on the bench who has earned a start the ENTIRE season, or Williams doesn’t believe the players that would lose their spot could recover mentally from being benched.

There is NO CHANCE the first scenario has occurred. Clearly, guys like Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard (and even Bobby Frasor before he injured his foot) have earned a start at some point in the last 4.5 months. So let’s do some quick math. Ty Lawson has played well-to-very-well since moving in the starting line-up early in the season. He’s head and shoulder’s better than Quentin Thomas, Frasor or Wes Miller. Lawson gives the Heels the best chance to win. He must start. Tyler Hansbrough has had a challenging year, but no big guy on the team is better. His presence puts so much pressure on the other team. Sure, he could be doing some things a lot better, but he’s earned his spot. That leaves us with the middle of the line-up – Brandan Wright, Reyshawn Terry and Wayne Ellington. Wayne is the easiest to pick on. Essentially, he’s a taller, quicker version of Miller. If Ellington’s shot isn’t dropping, he’s of little use to UNC. Ginyard certainly has earned a chance to enter the first five. And, frankly, there was a stretch a couple of weeks ago where Green was a much more consistent shooter (and scorer) than Ellington. I know Roy Williams would disagree, but Green also was at least as good a defender as Ellington. Green deserved (and probably still does deserve) a start. If Williams really thought Ellington was holding down the 2 spot, then Green could have been inserted for Terry long ago and on many occasions. Lord knows, Terry’s play at times practically begs for him to be benched. Wright is the most difficult to judge. His skills are elite-level. But he doesn’t rebound and is a poor passer. And the real kicker is how awful he is from the line. As a big guy, he’s going to get fouled. He has to be better from the line. Should he be benched? Is there really another big guy better? The answer to both questions, strictly speaking, is “no”. Still, I’d love to see Terry move to the 4 and let Wright be the first big guy off the bench (more on this in minute).

All of this means that scenario # 2 is in play. If Williams benched Terry or Ellington, it could hurt both mentally. So the net result is better by letting both guys continue to start. That speaks volumes about the character of Green, Ginyard and Frasor. And, frankly, it speaks volumes in the other direction for Terry and Ellington. I actually think Ellington might be ok coming off the bench. But Terry? We all know he would shrivel if he had to come off the bench.

2. Coaching has hurt Hansbrough – Williams continually says that he is ok with Hansbrough trying to score on double and triple-teams. I’m ok with this line of thinking….to a degree. The problem is that the staff has neglected to help Hansbrough understand when to attack the multiple defenders and when to kick the ball back out (preferably with a reversal pass). The indecision puts too much pressure on Hansbrough. Not only does he have to deal with several big bodies right on top of him, but he also has to struggle with not knowing what to do with the ball. It’s a double-whammy, and I put this one squarely on the coaches. No one is saying that Tyler has to give up the ball every time a double comes. But he does need to recognize the TYPE of double he’s getting. If another big man comes at him, he should find Wright. If a guard comes down, he should spin opposite and look to reverse the ball. It’s not hard, but it does take practice. The well-coached teams (like Duke and State) actually want Hansbrough to catch the ball in certain areas so they can implement the double, knowing that Hansbrough will react poorly. It drives me crazy to watch Hansbrough look so unprepared for something that happens to him every single game. Can you imagine how lethal the Heels would be if he could improve in this area? I love the thought of Ellington, Green, or Terry being wide-open for a 3.

3. Lack of penetrators – In the age of penetration, the Tar Heels are lacking in this area. Even Williams says this is the single most important offensive weapon in college bball today. Yet, UNC has only one guy who’s any good at it – Ty Lawson. When you add the fact that the Heels have the most scouted and un-changing offense in America, the need for a penetrator is magnified. Ellington may get there one day, but right now he has to bull his way to the hoop. Ginyard, Green, Frasor and Terry have moments…but not many. Thomas has shown some flashes of being able to slash to the hoop, but everyone plays him for the pass. Until he can finish consistently (either with the pull-up jumper or at the bucket), Thomas is not useful on offense. You can still be a great team without having multiple players able to get in the lane, but you better have guys who can score while being guarded. The ’05 bunch had four who could do this (Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Sean May and Rashad McCants). This team has two: Lawson and Hansbrough. Wright might be there, but he scores most of his points on put-backs and dunks, not while being guarded.

4. Lack of perimeter defenders – At first glance, you’d think Ginyard, Green, Miller, Lawson, Thomas, Frasor and Ellington would be a formidable stable of perimeter stoppers. But results don’t lie. Engin Atsur, Zabian Dowdell, Jon Scheyer, D.J. Strawberry, J.R. Reynolds, and Sean Singletary really hurt the Heels. Dowdell, Strawberry and Scheyer had career or near-career games. Indeed, the turnover-prone Greg Paulus managed to commit 0 turnovers against UNC. If you go back to Gonzaga, Matt Bouldin lit up Carolina too. The trend is there. Perimeter defense is a weakness for UNC right now. I believe the backcourt folks are making it too tough on the post guys. Too much penetration allowed, too much fouling, too many points from the other team’s guards. Hansbrough and Wright aren’t yet capable of managing the lane defensively and it shows.

5. The rotation really does need to shrink – This debate began a long time ago and continues to get hotter and hotter. Here’s the problem: The players don’t see the big picture because they are competing for minutes against one another rather than trying to win the game. Wayne Ellington feels too much pressure to put the ball in the hole, as does Deon Thompson. Danny Green is hunting his shot too much because he thinks he needs to make an “impact” in order to get more minutes. Wes Miller’s shooting woes, I believe, are/were a direct result of trying to prove his worth, and thus earn more minutes. None of this is healthy for the team. If the line-up were trimmed, it would help just about everyone. Guys would realize they’re going to play more minutes, and that would help them relax, and that would help the team. Further, it would allow the best players to be on the court more often. This is something that has concerned me over the last two months. For instance, in almost every game the last several weeks both Hansbrough and Wright head to the bench early in the game at about the same time (usually giving the tired signal). This means that Thompson and Stepheson are on the floor together for 2-3 minutes. Thompson can score at times, but generally these minutes are lost minutes for the Heels. Or, better said, these are “loose” minutes. Fouls are committed, easy shots are given up, some turnovers occur – “loose” minutes. The same thing, more or less, occurs when Miller and Thomas are on the floor. In December and January, the loose minutes are not so bad. In February and March, those loose minutes get you beat. By tightening the rotation, these loose minutes would decrease. I’d rather have a slightly tired Hansbrough on the floor against Florida/Kansas/Wisconsin than a completely fresh Alex Stepheson.

So what to do, what to do? I really think it’s time to move Terry to the 4 and insert Ginyard in to the starting lineup. I’d like to see Marcus at the 2, which would allow Green to move in to the first five at the 3. But, you could put Ginyard at the 3 and get Frasor in the game at the 2. Bobby desperately needs minutes, but he really isn’t ready to start right now. Hansbrough, Terry, Green, Ginyard and Lawson is a better five than the one that currently starts. Then, you’d have Wright, Ellington and Frasor off the bench. Thompson, Thomas, Miller and Stephenson would see their minutes dwindle to almost nothing. Thompson is the only one that should approach double-figure minutes. The other three guys should play 10 minutes combined.

Lawson needs no less than 30 a game right now, with Frasor picking up the rest. Hansbrough, Terry and Wright should split the post minutes. Thompson would come in when Terry needed to move to the 3 and either Tyler or Brandan was tired and/or in foul trouble. Ginyard could slide to 3 at times to give Frasor some minutes at the 2. This 8-9 man line-up is just as flexible as the 12 man rotation now in use. The difference is that the best players would be playing almost every minute.

And there are more reasons to employ this new lineup. Right now, Terry is too passive to start games, and it carries over for the entire game sometimes. As a 3, he floats on the perimeter. In the role he has now, he’s not a primary scorer, he’s not a primary rebounder, and he’s not a primary ball-handler. He’s not a primary anything. Jackie Manuel was great in this role, so was David Noel. This role, however, is not a good one for Terry. Moving Terry to the 4 would allow him to become a focal point on offense. I like Wright, but Brandan scores most of his points because of Tyler, not because of Brandan. Nobody doubles Wright, and very few teams really check him on the glass (I wouldn’t either given how softly he goes to the boards). While Terry may not finish some of the baskets Wright does, Reyshawn would provide something all the good Tar Heel teams have had – a good shooting 4-man. In ’05, both Marvin and Jawad Williams could stroke it at times from the perimeter. And both had deadly stretches from behind the arc. George Lynch (although not a great shooter, he did knock down the trail jumper), Pete Chilcutt, Joe Wolf, Brad Daugherty….all these folks could shoot (some better than others).

Terry would be a great 4. He would be no worse than Jawad Williams, and probably better when all is said and done. Also, Terry would be more perimeter-oriented Wright/Thompson. This would allow Tyler more room on the block. It would force the opposition to come a long way to double Hansbrough. And, with Green and Ginyard you would get more consistent defense right from the get-go. Green can be lax, but I think starting would pump him up quite a bit. With Ginyard, it’s a no-brainer. Marcus has earned it. Ellington is good, but Marcus gives you that little something extra. Specifically, you put Ginyard on Dowdell, Strawberry, etc. right from the tip and maybe those guys don’t get it going. With Wright coming off the bench, you might get improved play when he enters. The same with Ellington. Remember those loose minutes? Instead of Thompson you get Wright, instead of Miller you get Ellington. Bye-bye loose minutes. In fact, the new rotation might push the other team in to loose minutes. It wouldn’t take much for the other team to lose track of Wayne entering the game. Where he struggles to get an open look now, he might find better looks when playing against the other team’s bench. Instead of missing a couple of early contested jumpers, he might knock down a couple of open looks coming off the bench.

I know Miller, Thomas and Stepheson want to help. But, frankly, their best contribution right now is to hold a towel and be a cheerleader. The season literally hangs in the balance. The Heels may get to play only four more games. That should be all Roy Williams has to say to get the right effort from everyone. With that effort, the rest is up to Williams and the staff to make the right moves. One thing’s certain – if UNC continues with the same strategy, same rotation, same everything, then their fall will continue as well. Change is necessary. And now would be a good time.