Just finished watching the first half of UNC’s game vs. Gonzaga. The Heels are down three. They may win, but my guess is they will not. Carolina looks very confused vs. the Zags zone. Clearly, Mark Few is not going to allow Tyler Hansbrough to beat him. And, clearly, UNC has no answer for Josh Heytvelt. He’s too much player on offense for either Brandan Wright or Hansbrough at this point. Couple that with Tyler’s two fouls (check earlier post today….not what UNC needed), and Heytvelt will control the rest of the game. Frasor’s two quick fouls hurt the Heels as well. Strategically, the Heels need to go zone a good bit in the 2nd half. They’re doing a lousy job of guarding the high-middle screen-roll. Roy was wise to call off the trapping, and not smart to do it the one time at the end of the half when Raivio nailed the wide open three.

Bottom line: Unless Carolina can make a slew of 3’s in the second half, Gonzaga will slowly extend the lead until the margin is too great. Look for a decent half for a while until UNC’s youth and inexperience tighten them up. That tightness, and Hansbrough’s ineffectiveness, will result in a 15 point Gonzaga win.